TURIN, Italy - Growing anarchy in Albania is setting off alarm bells across Europe. The spread of violent disorder - or even
civil war - in this tiny but strategic Balkan nation of 3.5 million could plunge the volatile region, known as 'Europe's
powderkeg,' into a new round of conflicts.
Albania's latest agony began last year when a third of its citizens lost their life savings in the collapse of fraudulent pyramid
schemes. Since then, furious mobs have rioted against the government of President Sali Berisha, demanding their $3 billion of
losses be restituted - though the government has no money to do so.
Supporters of the former communist regime - which collapsed in 1991 - are leading the rioting. Ex-agents of Sigurimi, the
dreaded Stalinst secret police, have broken into arms depots, armed mobs, and assaulted government buildings. Southern
Albania has virtually seceded from the north. This has rekindled ancient tribal animosity between southern Tosks and northern
Ghegs. President Berisha and most of his government are Ghegs. The late communist dictator, Enver Hoxha, was a Tosk, as
were many members of the communist party.
As of this writing, the government is massing tanks and infantry for a possible assault to retake the key port of Vlore and other
rebellious southern towns. Troops have been ordered to shoot to kill. Mobs of armed insurrectionists await the army. The
situation is explosive: Albanians are a warlike people ungiven to compromise. The ancient credo of Gheg mountaineers was:
'guns, tobacco, raki (local firewater) and women' - in that order.
Albania's foreign patrons, the US and Italy, are bringing heavy pressure on President Berisha to call new elections and allow
the opposition to take power. Berisha refuses, knowing full well that this would mean a return to communist rule and a
bloodbath. Communists commanded a third of the popular vote before the pyramid disaster. Many Albanians who worked
for the old regime yearn for a return of Stalinism and restoration of their status as a privileged elite.
Whether the embattled Berisha can hold on remains uncertain. His fall could set off a major Balkan crisis. Over the past five
years, Washington has armtwisted Berisha not to press claims to ethnic Albanian regions of Serbia and Macedonia in
exchange for aid, and protection from attack by Serbia.
Half of the total 7 million Albanians live outside Albania's borders. Two million are in Kosova, which is currently ruled under
brutal martial law by Serbia. Kosova, which is 92% Albanian and 8% Serb, is about to explode: Serb police are daily killing
Albanians. Guerilla warfare against Serb occupation has begun. But so far, US pressure has kept Albania from supporting its
brothers in neighboring Kosova.
Another million Albanians live in Macedonia, compromising between 30-40% of its population. President Berisha emphasized
to me his determination to avoid an explosion of ethnic nationalism among Macedonia's Albanians. But he may be tempted to
use the motional issues of Kosova and Macedonia to divert domestic attention from the current financial mess, which his
government failed to head off in time.
Any government that replaces Berisha may do the same. Making matters worse, Greece just warned Albania to keep hands
off the ethnic Greek minority in southern Albania, said to number 30,000 by Tirana and 300,000 by Athens. This threat raises
fears of historic Greek claims to southern Albania, which Greek irredentists call 'northern Epirus.'
Meanwhile, Serbia's beleaguered dictator, Slobodan Milosevic might try to save his neck by provoking full scale fighting in
Kosova. He rose to power on a 'crush Albanians' platform that called for ethnic cleansing of Kosova. Landlocked Serbia has
also yearned for a century to seize Albania's northern deepwater port of Durres.
This is why Europe is so nervous: an explosion in Albania could set the entire Balkans afire just when it seemed peace had
finally been restored.
copyright eric margolis 1997
Reprinted with Permission
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Eric Margolis
Syndicated Columnist/Foreign Affairs Analyst
The Toronto Sun
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